Search Indian Express – China new silk road hits 14 billion $ pothole in Pakistan
Salami Slicing
A strategic approach by China
In which China makes small but steady inroads into another territory, which is enough to expand its foothold without aggrevating the situation in a war
Eg – Doklam crisis
Doklam Valley crisis
Victory for India – Both soldiers removed troops
Tangible Impact
ASEAN countries – Republic Day
Maldives – China says 0 We don’t want another Dokalm. Hence talking with India
Resolute but not waged a war
India showed that to safeguard our interests, we are ready to even step out of our territory
India showcassed it might and aspiring status
Countered the belief that China can’t be countered
Defended our ally Bhutan
Prevented from it getting coerced into joining Chinese Orbit
Rumpurs of exchange of Doklam for greater are in the North of Bhutan
Laid a template for other states, who have witnessed a similar chinese agression, to follow
Should discred the Chinese leadership and weaken the leadership
A framework to unite countries –
Japan has supported
Other countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Phillipines have had differences, and there may be a new Convergence of interests
” The supreme art of war is to subdue the army without fighting ” – Sun Tzu, Chinese military strategist
Similar crisis averted in TUTING, arunachal
Why China doing ?
Current
Elections in CPC – hence a fervor of nationalism
Possibly a retaliiation against India , Japan, US coming together ( Malabar exercise)
Plan
Attempt to choke Siliguri corridor
May not have anticipated Indian entry and Bhutanese effective opposition
General trend –
over ambition – 9 dash line
Boost by BRI
American Power Vacuum
Veil against sluggish growth
India’s objections
1988 and 1998 agreement with Bhutan and 2012 with India to maintain status quo
Security Implications
Siliguri Corridor
Coercion of Bhutan, an Indian ally
McMohan
Connection to McMohan – China insists on 1899 treaty with British but purposely rejects McMohan
Standoffs
Doklam – Largest stand off since 1986
Others
Daulat Beg Oldie
Chumar in Ladakah
PANGONG TSO lake
Other strategically important points – But no standoff
Chumbi Valley in China – the valley connecting with India – issues- Siliguri corridor, Difficulty of Indian forces in manouvering in the region due to difficult terrain, Nathu La Paas nearby – Although there has
Tawang
Shaksgam Valley – That Pak ceded to China
Siachen
Other learnings
Border Infra growth
India – Border roads on India China border – CAG – only 35% completed
Other irritants
Border –
Dokalm, McMohan, Siachen, Tawang , Shaksgam Valley
Western Frontier – India says that Johnson line is the real boundary which China claims the McDonald Lines to press its claims over Askai Chin
Eastern Frontier – McMohan Line
China accepts the McMohan line itself as the border between china and Myanmar
Pakistan
45 billion dollars CPEC through PoK
and control of Gwadar port
As well as deployment of Chinese navy allowed
Shaksgam Valley
Massod Azhar
NSG, UNSC at Paks Behest
Allegations of Nuclear Tech trasfer, Missile transfer, other millitary sales – eg JF 17
String of Pearls
Long term port contacts
Hambantota
Hambantota also shows the vested Chinese design of forcing a country into political dependence
Kyaukyu in Myanmar (Pneumonic – Kya Kyu ??)
Sittwe just nearby
But is much smaller
Chittagong in Bangladesh
Maldives
Signed FTA recently
Stapled visa to Arunachal
Cyber
Hacking
Chinese companies such as Huawei have been accused even in the US
River Water Dispute
Creation of Dams in Brahmaputra
Dalai Lama
OBOR
Trade Imbalance
Trade deficit of 45 billion $
Main reason
India exports labour intensive low tech, raw materials like cotton, minerals
China does value addition and sells goods like 3Es electronics (Electronics largest export from China to India )
Artificially devaluated currency
State led distortion in land, labour market
Restrictions on Indian pharmaceutical, services export
Recent ban on iron ore exports
It is a structural phenomenon. Not just with India
China Nepal
One China Policy
Recognition of Tawang
China wants India to accept the political and economic disparity
India and China suffer from the distorted mandate in US led Bretton woods institution
This led to BRICS bank and AIIB , Quota reforms in IMF
Economic
Modi “China is the world’s factory while India is the world’s back office
Trade at 70 billion $
One of the largest, varies depending on the world. Ocassionally, US, UAE take lead
Sister cities in Smart city
With Bangalore, Hyderabad & Ahmedabad
Security
Manner in which Doklam Crisis was resolved Peacefully
A hotline between the 2 army headquarters will be established to resolve confusions
Terrorism
China – Suffers too in Xingxiang Province
Recent BRICS deration in Xiamen – Calls for Pak to put greater pressure on Terrrorists operating in Pak
Global trade
Both part of G33
India and China both face the challenge of western minded WTO
China initially supported India about her reservation on agriculture subsidy
Climate commitments
Both believe in CBDR to true extent
Formed like minded group (LMG) to press for the cause
S&T
A recent agreement for cooperation in the space research between the 2 countries
IDEA OF PEACE
PANCHSHEEL
What to do more ?
The above Convergence issues
DGMO level hotlines agreed I 2015 needs to be expedited
Border Infra
Backchannel talks
Both countries should follow the SPIRIT of Border Defence Cooperation Agreement of 2013
Arms
India should HOPE for the BEST and PREPARE for the WORST- CONCLUSION
OBOR
One belt, one road – Now called BRI – Belt and Road Initiative
29 HoS in BRI inaugration
Challenges to India
CPEC through PoK
Issues to India
Accepting of OBOR Formal legitimization of PoK – Gilgit Baltistan
May mean greater exploitation of the Baloch people
Fear that the part could be transferred to China just like shaksgam valley in 1963
String of Pearls
Esp India is anxious about the Chinese Naval presence at the Gwadar Port
Medium to provide funds to Pak Millitary
Pak based industries complaining of missing out
New Colonisliam
Debt problem
Environment issues
India also complains of Lack of Transparency
Local Population opposition
Large Dams planned – 7k MW – Dispacement of People
Environemtn Issues – EU changed the joint statement
Leads to leveraging of countries and may cause permanent Chinese dependency
Hambantota in Sri Lanka
Indian Eonomic Competitiveness
CPEC being extended to Afghanistan
Reasons
Genuine – To clear Xingjiang region of Terrorism, make CPEC economically viable, and also provide CPEC better shield by involving Afghan
De Facto – String of Pearl, Chinese global outreach ( also is trying to broker peace in Myanmar with Rohingyas )
Impact on India
China – String of Pearls, and Chinese Economic Diplomacy
Pakistan may influence the Indian policy of Afghanistan
Isn’t India going to isolate economically ?
In contrast -after Indian stance, many European countrires, Sri Lanka, Tanzania etc are reconsidering their stance
Maybe
29 HoS participated
Even US, Japan sent resentratives
Participation of Neighbours like Myanmar, Pak, Ban, Nepal
India will have to fund through AIIB
UN secretary general also cxalled for India
Not so much.
Write Convergence of interests with China
Convergence of Interests with other countries like US, Europe and Japan who have shown Ambivalance to China
Other alternatives
Japan
India, Japan – ASIA AFRICA GROWTH CORRIDOR – being worked out
Will focus more on Small Industries like Pharma, Food Processing though instead of Infra project like China
Project Mausam , IORC, BIMSTEC
May Cherry Pick parts of OBOR
Like Maritime Silk Road
INSTC, SCO,
Trans Asian Railway – ITI – DKD
Plus, joining it may mean Chinese workers, Chinese terms and conditions and Chinese debt which may not be very favourble to India
We may continue to enjoy certain benefits
Terrorism down with Development in Pak, Xingjiang
Profit via AIIB – since India 2nd largest shareholder
India can use the infrastructre to expans connectivity with Central Asia
Even if there is, I think it’s a price worth paying for to defend Indian sovereign interests and India standing on its own feet shoulg go as a message of Superpower in Making
