India-Latin America Relations
Introduction
- Prof Varun Sahni—
- LA has featured sporadically & largely symbolically in IFP
- It is like ‘out of sight, out of mind’, mainly bcz—LA is distant Geo and thus, conceptually & diplomatically too.
- Shashi Tharoor—LA has long been the “Forgotten continent” in India
- “Last frontier” of IFP
Evolution
- Cold War—LACs under US hegemony, while India NAM
- Indira visit in 1968– she described it as “voyage of discovery.”
- End of C.W + emergence of democracies + Emergence of ‘Brasilia Consensus’ + Opening of India’s economy—New Vigour in Rel.
- Credit for est linkage with LA goes to Private sector, i.e, Unlike “Trade follow flag”, in case of LA “Flag followed the trade”.
Channels
- Observer status in Pacific Alliance
- Strategic partnership with Brazil
- Privileged partnership with Mexico
- Imp partner in India led ISA
- UNSC, NSG, CC, terrorism, trade, etc.
Economic Relations—
- Trade grown over 30% annually b/w 2000 & 2014—Trade—$30 bl in 2017-18. (China $308 bl).
- Complementary nature of economies—LA has surplus of Resources + India provides a large market for their exports.
India’s imports:
- Food Security— oilseeds & pulses, Veg oil etc
- Energy Security—imports 15% of crude oil—Venezuela, Argentina (Shale gas)
- LA’s principal oil market was US. But shale Rev in US— oil imports declined—so LA looks towards India (2nd largest oil importer from the region)
- Also India is imp to reduce dependence on China
- Minerals— Copper, Gold, Li for EVs
India’s exports
- Textiles & ready-made garments
- IT Service , Pharma, Automobile
Whether India is not engaged ?
- India is perceived to be less engaged due to distant geo. However, Amb. R Visvanathan—“LA is closer to India than you think”.
- Trade with distant Brazil > with BD, Rus
- Exports to Mexico > Russia, Canada
Critical
- Amb. Deepak Bhojwani –
- Pol rel r cordial but seldom ascend levels of strategic empathy.
- Lck of any ‘issues’ paradoxically results in a corresponding lack of engagement
- Harsh V. Pant—
- Despite a highly energetic outreach to rest of world, India still relegates LA to the backwater of diplomacy
- India’s eminence is rising on the global stage but this has not yet found an expression in LA
- Physical connectivity— however This does not deter China
- Lack of uniform approach towards the region— confined to Brazil, Mexico, Chile.
- Exponentially growing Chinese influence in the region— Target of $100 bl in trade & $250 bl investment by 2025
- Rivalries b/w Brazil & Argentina for regional dominance is also affecting India’s relations with the region.
Ex—India & Brazil are part of G4, Argentina is part of the coffee club
+ve signs
- Inter-America Dev bank report (2011)- projected India as the next big thing in LA.
- Prof. Sreeram Chaulia—India is although a latecomer to LA, but it is seen as a softer benign power for reducing overdependence on China.
Way Forward
- Look beyond Brazil in LA
- Shyam Saran—
- Critical support of Brazil, Mexico & Argentina, enabled to obtain NSG waiver
- As middle powers these countries will be significant partners in any middle power coalition India would want to construct to press its preference for a multipolar order
- India needs a LA strategy—An India- LA summit should remain on our diplomatic horizon.
Conclusion
- The Indian elephant has already engaged the tigers of Asia. It is now the turn of the pumas of the Pacific .
- India must engage with the region on a consistent rather than on ad-hoc basis, as Prof. Sreeram Chaulia Says LA is the final frontier where India is yet to live up to its aspirational tag of ‘leading power’.
- Amb. Amitava Tripathi— There are enormous opportunities. Virtually sky is the limit.