Arab traders have visited India at least since the 8th century
Some settled in India & gave rise to Moplah community of Kerala
Middle East countries realise that at a time when US has become oil independent, India is one country that is necessary to prevent internal rifts in the area. Hence , convergence of interests have arisen
Israel
News
25 years of opening of embassy in Israel –
Diplomatic relations started here
1992
Modi Visit – 1st time ever Indian HoS visiting
Also this visit saw the DE HYPHENATION of Israel Palestine relations and allows us to consider each country on its own merit allowing greater Strategic Independence in Indian Foreign Policy
India Israel STRATEGIC PARTNERS now
India voted against US moving its embassy to Jerusalem
History
After independence although India was sympathetic to Jews, India did not immediate recognise Israel because of Palestine cause ( and due to domestic politics)
Under NAM India followed a Hyphenated Policy
Diplomatic relations started only in 92 after Oslo Accords were signed
Defence
Barak missiles
Barak 8,
LR SAM
Co developed
SPYDER quick reaction Sam missiles
AWACS
Israel comfortable with Transfer of Technology
India largest destination of Israel exports
Israel one of the largest defnce suppliers of India
Doesn’t impose End Use restrictions
Like USA does
And has some of the best Technologies
Eg Iron Dome
Economic
India Israel in FTA negotiations
Trade at 5 billion$
India has a trade surplus
Chief exports are petrochemicals and mines and mineral
STARTUP hub
2nd largest startup market
Can be complementary to Make in India
Agriculture
Israel has rugged, desert land. Yet, Israel managed agriculture
Expertise in drip and trip irrigation, eater desalitation, horticulture mechanisation, etc
Can help tackle farmer suicide problems I Vidarbha
Water
99% Micro Irrigation
Desalination
It treats 95% of its sewage water for Agricultural use and creates a Circular Economy
Innovation
India Israel et up the Technology Innovation fund – I4F
S&T
Atomic Clocks , Eletronic Propulsion System MoU
Education
Ties between Mumbai & Tel Aviv University
Anti terror
Need for cooperation with MOSSAD
Cons
India, Israel competitors in polished diamonds
Israel Palestine issue
May isolate Arab States
Israel Palestine
Palestine
Gaza strip on the west & West Bank on east
The joint umbrella organisation- Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO)
Hamas, the radical fraction from Gaza a breakaway of that
History
Oslo accords signed to negotiate peace
Israel has occupied Palestine territory ever since 1967 war
Also runs East Jerusalem, where Palestinians in virtually same position as Jews in Nazi Germany, ie separate housing quarters, rationing etc
Jerusalem – US recognised it as Israek capital and planning to shift the embassy
Indian stand
NAM
Voted against US measures as it risks eruption of violence in the region and proliferation of terrorism which may undermine the peace process
Although, by recognising Jerusalem as the capital, US has merely recognised the De Facto
History of Jerusalem
Jerusalem has long been a contested city between Christians, Jews and Muslims
Earlier a temple was construced in the walled city of JerusTrumps alem
Which was destroyed and rebuilt many times
After the Muslim invasion, it was destroyed and now Temple Mount ( Muslim’s 3rd holisest place lie ) . Jews worship the old remains of the walls
Situation changed after WW1 after Balfour declaration when the British became masters of the region and it led to a Zionist movement . Jerusalem was originally part of Jordan
After formation fof Israel, during the 6 year war, Jerusalem came undee Israel control, although East Jerusalem is strictly under Palestinian regime ( West Bank)
Trump’s interventionist policy in Middle East is part of many other events like Derecognition of Iran Nuclear deal, Millitary pact with Saudi etc
Steps required
Israel
Stop building of more settlements in occupied West Bank
Support PLO
Peace brokering
As the bigger brother, has greater responsibilty
Palestine
Stop tunnel creation
Move away from terror funding, association with Hamas
Efforts to prevent attacks against Israelis
Palestine and India
Fist non Arab country to recognise
Hyphenation – Although reversal recently, Modi visiting only Israel
Not much opposition from Arab worls
Are OK
But balanced by Palestine President visiting India and visit of Indian Foreign Minister
Supports Palestinian cause
Building tech park at Ramallah
Other soft Diplomacy
Health sector, Youth and sports, Agriculture
Necessary for India’s commitment to NAM, mediation, terrorism, the more peace with ISRAEL, the more Israel will be able to cooperate with India, Indian diaspora and soft diplomacy
Recently, Trump reversed the plan to withdraw US troops , and has suggested for more troops deployment to ” Win the War”
Indiacations of more engagement and space for Indian collaboration has alos been highlighted
And has criticised the role of Pak based Terror cells
Economic
AIR TRANSPORT CORRIDOR
To circumvent Pakistan blocking APPTA extension
But, is suffering from issues of inadequate no of transport planes
FTA
10 billion$ steel project in Afghanistan by Indian steel consortium
Rail and road route to connect this with Chahbar port
Cost around 5 billion $
Would remove technical hurdles for operationalizing of And consolidate India’s position
Road called route 606
Or Delang Delaram road
India has given 2 billion dollars of financial assistance till now
India has provided duty free access to afghan exports under south Asia free trade agreement ( safta) in 2015
TAPI
Salma Dam – 45 MW in Herat
Afghan Parliament built by India
TRADE
Need to become a member of APTTA ( AF Pak Transit Trade Agreement) so that trade with India can pass unhindered via PAK – currently the agreement bars India to access
See Vision March -17- 15
Strategic
Sale of Mi-25 attack helicopters
Both countries share concerns about Pak’s good terrorist bad terrorist nuancing
India needs to play a greater role in Afghan’s policy determination by applying for inclusions in QCG etc
Need to work upon Strategic Partnership Agreement signed in 2011
Terrorism
Pak based elements
Taliban – ISI supported . Similar JeM, LeT
Social
India built the Parliament of Afghanistan
Health
Afghani patients visit India for cheap treatment
Prosthetic limbs
Political
Heart of Asia
Istanbul declaration
Memeber countries – All important nations of Asia including India, Pak, China, Russia, Saudi, Iran (NO JAPAN though )
Associate countries are USA, UK, Japan, France, Germany
SAARC
Challenge
Proposed expansion of CPEC to Afghan
Terrorism– Kandhar embasy attack in 2008
Indian influence may decline
QCG
Quadrilateral Coordination group having US, China, Pak and Afg
For talks with Taliban
Although having troubled times because of trust deficit
Similarly, role of SCO in Afg
Withdrawal of ISAF
Pak
new govt led by Ashraf Ghani has shown coziness to Pak
MoU held between of ISI and Afgahn intelligence agency
Update
Ghani has now openly blamed PAK for inciting Taliban
Ghani’s support to Indian position on Balochistan
India 3 Mi helicopters
Visit of Afghan Army chied with a request for greater ammunititon supply
Crisis in the unity govt
expatriates in Middle east
Expatriates in middle east send home 33 billion dollars a year, as against 10 billion dollars by us NRI
60% of all remittances
The Hindu calls them “ The real NRI” due to remittances and investment
Remittance saw a 90% drop this year due to oil crisis
Visa problem
Often employers take away their passports
Workers left at their mercy
Exploitation of workers
Nitaqat law , Kafala System
Elaboration required
Iran
Economic
Indian investments
Chabahar Port
Issue – Pak was also one of the invitee countries. Hence we should not take Iran for granted, instead we should continuously engage with it
For crude oil and urea
Counter against Chinese built Gwadar port a 100 k adrift
Other benefits
Connectivity with Afghanistan
Trilateral Transport Agreement
STILL BEING NEGOTIATED – RECOMMEND THIS
India, Iran, Afg
Via Indian built Route 606 or Zaranj Delaram Road India built in Afg in 2009
Provide better evacuation from 10 billion $ steel plant being built
And circumvent Pak to reach Afg
access to central Asia and Russia
International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC)
13 countries
Link between Iran, central Asia, Russia via Caspian Sea
Using rail, road & sea
India to accede to the Ashgabat Agreement, an international transport and transit corridor facilitating transportation of goods between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf.
An agreement similar to INSTC
Would help synchronize the two
Another route to reach Eurasia
Free trade zone around the port
Indian investment in port with 500 million dollars. total in free trade area could be worth 20 billion $
ONGC- Farzad gasfields
ONGC discovered the gasfields
However, in the wake of sanctins of Iran, India made no claims to invest
Now situations are complicated
Sanctions are lifted, India could seek again
But, Iram seems more willing to go to American & European companies
Has led to India reducing import from Iran
And Iran has retalliated by reducing the payment window
Trade
Oil
Imports slipped by over 66%
Earlier, Iran 2nd largest supplier
Proposed Iran India LNG Pipeline
Overall, India has a due of 6 billion $
Political
Balance between 3 poles of Shia Iran, Sunni Saudi and Israel
Strategic
Chabahar port 65km from Gwadar
India- Iran axis given common rift with Pak
International North South Transport corridor vs Chinese OROB
Pipeleline
Iran Pak India pipeline
Now an underground pipeline from Iran being mooted bypassing Pak
Cultural
Persian ties
Parsi
Elaboartion Required
Challenge
India voting against Iran in IAEA after US Pressures
Crude oil imports from Iran fallen to 1-3rd. Before, it used to be the 2nd largest
“Secondary nuclear related sanctions” have been lifted
But sanctions continue over issues related to terrorism, missiles, and a general Trade Embargo
Other countries can resume ties but financial transactions have to bypass US (or whole EU +3 ??)
Hence, India difficulty in settling oil dues of 6 billion $
UAE
The UAE federation consists of 7 independent emirates.
India UAE
Trade
bilateral trade is 60 billion dollars
UAE India’s 3rd largest trading partner.
More importantly, trade is almost balanced
FTA talks between India and GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council )
Energy security-
The UAE meets 10% of India’s crude oil needs.
More important when Saudi is charging premium on oil to Asians
Strategic oil reserve in Mangalore by an UAE firm
2/3rd of it available to India for free
Remaining third to be used by the firm for commercial purposes
Investment
UAE has a SWF of 800 billion dollars
UAE to spend 75 billion$ in Indian infrastructure (NIIF) out of SWF
Some glitch
UAE said India should carry out some structural change before accessing SWF funds
Defence
Both use similar platforms like Rafael
Coopreration in anti terror and information sharing
Millitary Exercise
Interaction every 6 months between NSA
Collaboration in money laundering, drug trafficking, cyber crime
Strait of Homruz
Presence of criminals like Daud Ibrahim
S&T
Cooperation in space – remote sensing
In renewable energy
Expatriate population
2.5 million Indians live in UAE – 30% of UAE population
remitting 13 billion dollars annually.
. However India must seek better laws for humane treatment of Indian workers.
Food security
India to build a Farm to Port project – A sez like in food sector
Diplomacy
India Pak cricket diplomacy – Sharjah
SAUDI ARABIA
Trilateral balance between Saudi, Iran and Israel
Tilt now towards Israel and Saudi
Growth of ties
Energy security partnership in 2008
Riyadh declaration in 2010 – Strategic partnership
Defence partnership in 2014 and now highest award to Modi
Pros
India’s largest supplier of crude oil
To charge Premium on exports to Asia
Need to diversify to Venezuela, Nigeria, Brunei, Iran
India is the largest recipient of remittance from the kingdom
3 million Indian workers
Strain with Pak ( a long time Ally ) over its growing alliance with Iran
Can be used to pressurise Pak
Also refused to join Saudi’s bombing in Yemen
De Facto head of the Sunni kingdom
Cultural
Religious Tourism
Mecca
Recent deals on counter terrorism, intelligence sharing, extradition
Challenges
Expatriates
Nitaqat law
Saudi sex slavery
Chopping off hands of Indian housemaids
Housemaids mostly from Tamil Nadu, Telangana region
Challenge
The Saudi state falicilitates environment of impunity for their Foreign Employers
Saudi has refused to implement the Indian scheme of providing for security deposit of 2500$ in Indian embassy before approaching recruitment agents in India
India is looking to ban Saudi employing Indian housemaids
Terrorism
Funding to Wahabi groups
Yemen, Syria destabilisation policy
Geopolitical
Saudi Iran tensions
Now Saudi and Qatar tensions
Yemen war
Pak Ally
Allied force led by former Pak general
Succession issues
Economic
Premium charge of Oil exports to Asia
Need to diversify to Africa (Nigeria, Mozambique, Sudan), Venezuela,
QATAR
Highest PCY
To end Kafala System
Any worker needs to take permission from employer before changing jobs or leaving the country
Was the means how Human Rights violation occurred
But, still need permission before going back to India
India – the largest immigrant group
To host WC 2022, Purchase of PSG and Neymar
Isolation by the S Arabia led GCC
Over Qatar growing proximity with Iran
And arguable Terror links
Economic
Largest LNG supplier
SWF
TURKEY
Visit by President Erdogan
History
Mughal rule
Ties can be better
Turkey talked of it mediating the Kashmir crisis
In joint statement, did not talk about the terror network originating from Pak, but talked about Naxal issue
NSG and UNSC- Supports but says other countries too
In general, proximity with Pak
President of Cyprus, an adversary of Turkey, recent visit to India
May lead to deteroriation of relations with Israel
The 2015 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to Tunisia’s National Dialogue Quartet. It has been selected for its decisive contribution to the building of a pluralistic democracy in Tunisia in the wake of the Jasmine Revolution of 2011.
The quartet comprises four organisations:
the Tunisian General Labour Union.
the Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts.
the Tunisian Human Rights League.
and the Tunisian Order of Lawyers.
But the Norwegian Nobel Committee emphasized that the prize is awarded to this quartet, not to the four individual organizations as such.
About National Dialogue Quartet:
The quartet has played a key role in mediating between the different parties in the country’s post-Arab Spring government.
It was created in 2013, two years after the revolution, when security in the country was threatened following the assassination of two key politicians and deadly clashes between Islamists and secular parts of society.
The Arab Spring originated in Tunisia in 2010 and 2011, but it quickly spread to other countries in North African and the Middle East. In many of these countries, the struggle for democracy and human rights has come to a standstill or suffered setbacks. Tunisia, however, has seen a democratic transition based on vibrant civil society, with demands for respect of basic human rights.
Tunisia’s uprising was the first and most successful of the Arab Spring
KURDS
History
They are Sunni Muslims (as are ISIS in shia dominated iraq). After the end of first world war , Ottoman empire was disintegrated by Treaty of Sevres and Allied power wanted to create Kurdistan for the Kurds who are nomads spreads across syria , iraq, iran, turkey.But this never came in to picture. Described as people without a state Have been persecuted in each of these states. After Saddam Hussain Iraqi Kurdistan have been enjoying Semi autonomy but their demand for full independence have not been met. Kurds are liberal and they believe in gender equality
India &Kurds
Initially against their demand of independent kurdistan and supported unified Iraq. But after ISIS, is considering a course correction Kurdish region is a oil rich and has a stable economy which can support India’s growing energy demand.Stable west asia is in the interest of India as it is the lifeline of India in terms of petroleum supply. Has a large population of Indian diaspora
India recently inaugrated a consulate in the Kurd region – will also help in evacuation process
Fight against ISIS:
-ISIS is a Sunni organisation which aims to create a caliphate where there will be no place for Apostates(those who don’t believe in core Islamic belief of Wahabism or Salafism – the ultra conservative Islamic philosophy – such as the one practised in Saudi Arabia where full Sharia law is followed )
-Kurds are also Sunni but they are different from Arab Sunnis and hence ISIS treats them as Apostates,hence fight against it.
-On Kurd part, Fight against ISIS is to capture the territories which they see as “their land”,
Dilemma
Iraqi Kurds have traditionally been American ally
On Syrian side, peoples protection group (YPG) militias fighting against Isis
Dilemma – ypg close to Kurdistan workers party ( PKK ) in turkey
Labeled terrorist in Ankara and Washington
If Kurds unite, it would counter turkeys interests
Hence, bombing pkk
ISIS
Salafism
Against modernization
India
Showed India under its caliphate
Raise call for Jihad as Hindu nationalism against islam
