Table of Contents
Emerging world order
Post Cold war or Present World order
Today, the world order is in state of flux
Multiplex w.o—Multiple great & regional powers bound together in complex interdepen Shivshankar Menon—Present W.O is
militarily unipolar, economically multipolar & politically confused.
C. Raja Mohan—Contemporary w.o is characterized by re-alignment, de-alignment & multialignment
Antonio Guterres— “A bad case of Trust deficit disorder”
In present times, The very structure of Intl order is undergoing a profound transformation— attributed by various geopolitical events.
USA’s unilateralism under America First.
Re-balancing of global economy—BRICS
Rise of China-challenging US hegemony
Return of old empires—Resurgence of Russia, Iran or Turkey.
Geopolitical Flux in Middle East
Africa which was earlier called the lost continent is now being called as continent of hope.
Technology, connectivity and trade are now the new notions of power.
Climate change is a factor, contributing to geopolitics amongst others by the opening of an
Shyam Saran—Present intensely globalised world demands a cosmopolitan temper, embrace of plurality & a relatively democratic governance structure.
Global challenges can only be met through multilateral approaches & equitable burden- sharing.
Future World order
Stephen Walt— “Future W.O will be one of unbalanced multipolarity. It will be multipolar, but US will remain most powerful country by a wide margin.
S.P Huntington predicts “uni-multipolarity”—1 superpower & several great powers.
Do you think that world is witnessing end of Pax Americana & beginning of Pax Sinica?
PoP thesis—Unipolarity is never stable
US overstretched so resulted in Fareed Zakaria calls as “Rise of rest”
Mearsheimer—China is not only challenging but aims to displace US hegemony
Quad shows attempt to prevent decline of US heg & check emergence of Pax Sinica in Indo Pacific. Although China has ambition to challenge US heg & US is in decline, But, no country has fundamentals as strong as US
Shyam Saran—The new LoN
China will emerge as a pole position in geopolits commencing in 2021—Its Power gap with US will shrink further & power gap with India will expand even more
We may see emergence of a loosely structured global order with clusters of regional powers,
India is located at a favourable geopolitical moment—Bcz China’s aggressive posture &
“weaponisation of eco interdependence” has made its partners increasingly wary—so world wants India to succeed bcz it is regarded as a benign power wedded to a RBIO.
Impact of Covid-19 on world order
Covid-19 will fundamentally transform world order, its BoP, traditional conceptions of national security & future of globalisation.
COVID-19 will further push Intl system into a world with Chinese characteristics.
Shivshankar Menon—“we are headed for a poorer, meaner, and smaller world.”
Parag Khanna—“we r witnessing the end of Glbl & strengthening of era of regionalism”. Shashi Tharoor & Samir Saran (Book—“The New World Disorder ”)—Abrupt breakdowns of global supply chain has reminded need for rebuilding regional supply chains as global one will appear too ambitious
India’s vision of world order
Wisdom is to live in tune with the mode of changing world – Thiruvalluvar
Jaishankar in “The India way”
Our world is moving towards greater disruption, stronger nationalism , sharper competitiveness, questioning of rules & regimes
Global contradictions will accentuate as geo-politics & geo-economics gets more heated.
Unlike China which aspires for “Middle kingdom complex”, India never aspires for India centric world—Bcz Indian tradition does not accord superiority to Bharatavarsha
Kautilyan tradition of realpolitik provides India a template for managing inter-state relations in a multipolar world.
Multilateral world order is best suited for India’s interests.
It is unlikely that world, or even Asia, will ever be China-centric. Even if China becomes the most powerful country, the logic of strategy will cause a general realignment of substantial powers against it.
India desires a multipolar world & stronger multilateral mechanisms
What India should do??—India’s size, clout, growing stakes give it a key role in defining the architecture of 21st cen
Advocate for Reformed multilateralism
Contri to global discourse & make a difference to Intl outcomes Script an equitable ethic for new Intl order.
Due to experience of colonialism—Strategic autonomy is a major driver of India’s foreign policy.